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Medical and science chiefs Chris Whitty and Patrick VallanceВ briefed the Cabinet yesterday on the SAGE view. The SAGE papers make clear that there is still a lot of uncertainty about the threat posed by Omicron.Д«ut they cite 'high confidence' that it spreads faster than the Delta variant and will sweep the country.

This would prevent (not just delay) some hospitalisations and deaths.' 'Slowing the wave of infections would also allow more people to receive boosters before they are potentially exposed to Omicron. Delaying until 2022 would greatly reduce the effectiveness of such interventions and make it is less likely that these would prevent considerable pressure on health and care settings. 'Illustrative scenarios from SPI-M-O suggest that measures equivalent to those in place after Step 2 or Step 1 of the Roadmap in England, if enacted early enough, could substantially reduce the potential peak in hospital admissions and infections compared with Plan B alone (medium confidence),' SAGE said. The statement suggests effectively ripping up the government's supposedly 'irreversible' roadmap out of lockdown - returning to stage 1 or 2, which means only essential retail opening and no mixing between households.Д«oris Johnson with medical chief Chris Whitty at a Downing Street press conference last week The SAGE consensus says 'earlier interventions' would have a 'greater effect' and could possibly be in place for a 'shorter duration', arguing they will be far less effective if delayed past New Year. Government modelling also estimated the strain is five-and-a-half times more likely to reinfect than Delta. The UK Health Security Agency said the super mutant strain, which on Friday officially became dominant in the UK, has an even bigger 'transmission advantage'.

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Household transmission is already the main driver of the pandemic, with up to 43 per cent of all infection believed to be caused by family members in the home. But on Friday it was revealed that Omicron-infected Brits are three times as likely to spread Covid to someone they live with as those with Delta. If the Government was to implement measures equivalent to step 1 on the roadmap out of lockdown, including the closure of all but essential retail and social contact restricted to one other household for outdoor exercise only, the modelling suggests a peak of 5,000 hospitalisations a day with 2,000 deaths.ДЄ record 1,820 people died from Covid on January 20 this year, during the second wave. The modelling suggests that if the Government implemented measures equivalent to step 2 on the roadmap out of lockdown, which included a ban on mixing households indoors and international holidays, the peak would reach 7,000 hospital admissions a day with up to 3,000 deaths a day.

This figure, which is the worst case scenario and references the high transmissibility of the Omicron variant, is based on the assumption that there will be behavioural changes such as increased mixing between households over the festive period. Grim modelling from the SPI-M-O group considered at the meeting suggests admissions could go as high as 10,000 a day - with up to 6,000 daily deaths. Minutes show the government's key advisory body agreed on Thursday that hospitalisations could hit at least 3,000 a day in England alone without 'stringent measures'.

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SAGE has backed a dramatic shutdown of non-essential shops and ban on households mixing to avoid a torrent of hospitalisations and deaths with Omicron running riot.